The Geopolitical Blindspot: Why Ignoring Global Trends Could Cost Your Company Millions

The Geopolitical Blindspot: Why Ignoring Global Trends Could Cost Your Company Millions

Insights by Gerry Lynch, Director at Govn365

I recently had the pleasure of co-hosting a very insightful webinar with the honourable Tim Groser, former trade minister and ambassador to the US. 

I wanted to understand if there is any logic to what is going on in the world currently and what directors, CEOs and owners need to do differently. The first part was easily answered and the answer is no!  The second part I will come onto.

In a world gripped by geopolitical tension, trade disruption, and protectionist sentiment, it’s tempting for boards and business leaders to react quickly. But according to former Trade Minister and Ambassador Tim Groser, that could be a mistake.

Groser, speaking in a recent webinar with New Zealand directors and SME owners, described the current global environment as a “moving target”. His message was clear: the wise boardroom posture right now is conservative and watchful — not reactive.

Don’t Chase Every Bump in the Road

Groser likened strategic decision-making in today’s environment to flying by wire — the computer-assisted navigation system used in aircraft. “If you try to manually adjust to every dip or bump, you’ll overcorrect and lose efficiency,” he warned.

The case of Apple was cited as a cautionary tale. With 90% of iPhones manufactured in China, the tech giant could shift production to India — but doing so risks massive costs if tariffs shift again. “Today’s good move may be tomorrow’s liability,” Groser explained.

The Time Horizon That Matters

Groser quoted Warren Buffett’s famous framing of foresight:

• “One week from now? I’ve no clue.”
• “Three to six months? Tentative thoughts.”
• “Five years out? I’m more confident.”

The takeaway for directors? Anchor your strategic planning in longer-term thinking and avoid reacting to every headline. Volatility is high, but so is the cost of constant change.

Tariffs, Trade Wars, and the July 9th Cliff Edge

A critical watchpoint is the July 9 expiration of current US tariffs (except China’s punitive 145%). Under a second Trump term, Groser warned, tariffs may snap back to high and irrational levels — particularly targeting steel, automotive, and pharmaceutical sectors to force reshoring.

NZ exporters in primary industries could be directly affected, with US protectionism being pursued through the ‘security exception’ — a legal loophole that shields policy from challenge under trade law.

Why Bond Markets May Matter More Than Politicians

Referencing Liz Truss’s downfall, lasting less time than a lettuce, Groser said the bond market — not the ballot box — may ultimately constrain populist policy. It was billionaire James Carville who once said: “If I could be reincarnated, I’d want to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everyone.”

Directors would do well to monitor global interest rates and market signals — not just political rhetoric.

China Will Not Be Humiliated

Groser made clear: China will play the long game. They won’t fold to pressure or humiliation. Don’t expect major countries to roll over on trade disputes. They’re increasingly driven by national pride, not just economic logic.

Still, don’t underestimate the pressure from US consumer giants like Walmart and Target, who will push back hard if shelves go empty or prices soar.

Opportunities and Risks for NZ Businesses

There are opportunities — especially in markets where US goods have traditionally dominated. If US exporters are shut out, NZ companies could step in.

But there’s a corresponding threat: product dumping, especially from China. Goods diverted from the US may flood other markets, creating pricing and margin pressure. Groser urged companies to be vigilant and engage early with industry associations and government.

Boardroom Takeaways

1. Be conservative, not reactive — don’t overcorrect to every shift.
2. Think long-term — the next 5 years matter more than the next 5 months.
3. Monitor July 9 tariffs — they may reshape your export landscape overnight.
4. Watch for dumping risks — be ready to raise the flag early.
5. Look for US trade exit gaps — and consider stepping into those markets.
6. Track bond markets and industry pressure — not just political headlines.

Final Thought: Navigating Through the Fog, Not Just the Storm

The message from Tim Groser is not simply to be cautious — it’s to be conscious. Conscious of the long game, of hidden risks, and of subtle signals that may matter more than the headlines. In a world where volatility is often mistaken for opportunity, the real edge belongs to those who can discern the difference.

For boards leading NZ companies into global markets, the challenge is to stay grounded while the winds of change swirl above. This requires more than agility — it demands strategic patience, disciplined foresight, and the courage to avoid overreaction when uncertainty is at its peak.

Because in geopolitics as in business, the costliest move is not always the wrong one — it’s the rushed one.